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Book cover for Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets, a book by Bernd Krampen Book cover for Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets, a book by Bernd Krampen

Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets

2023 ᛫


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Summary


Economic indicators provide invaluable insights into how different economies and financial markets are performing, enabling practitioners to adjust their investment strategies in order to gain knowledge about markets and to achieve higher returns. However, in order to make the right decisions, you must know how to interpret the relevant indicators. Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets provides this important guidance.


The first and second part of Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets focuses on the short-term analysis, explaining exactly what the indicators are, why they are significant, where and when they are published, and how reliable they are. In the third part, author Bernd Krampen highlights medium and long-term economic trends: It is shown how some previously discussed and additional market indicators like stocks, bond yields, commodities can be employed as basis for forecasting both GDP growth and inflation. This includes the estimation of possible future recessions. In the fourth part the predominantly good forecast properties of sentiment indicators are illustrated examining the real estate market, which is rounded up by an introduction into psychology and Behavioural Finance providing further tips and tricks in analysing financial markets.


Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets is an invaluable resource for investors, strategists, policymakers, students, and private investors worldwide who want to understand the true meaning of the latest economic trends to make the best decisions for future profits on financial markets.

Table of contents

  • PART I: On the Pulse of the Economy – Listen to the Signals!

  • Chapter 1. Procedure for the economic cycle analysis-Challenges and purposes of market analysis and forecasts
  • Chapter 2. Toolbox of economic indicators - interdependencies, time horizon, best signaller, US dominance
  • PART II: Short-Term Economic Assessments – Brevity is the Spice!
  • Chapter 3. USA: This is where the music plays! Schedule, GDP growth, business surveys, labour market, manufacturing, consumption, real estate, other macro data, prices
  • Chapter 4. Asia: China and Japan provide additional market impulses! Schedule, GDP growth, business surveys
  • Chapter 5. Europe & Germany: The domestic market remains relevant for us! Schedule, GDP growth, business surveys-Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets – with a Focus on US Data
  • PART III: Medium- and Long-Term Economic Trends – A Lot of Ideas!
  • Chapter 6. Growth contributions to quarterly GDP growth: Slowly approaching the goal -Consumption, structures, equipment, residential, inventory, net exports, government
  • Chapter 7. Longer term growth and inflation estimates: leading indicators show direction - Sentiment surveys, economic data, market indicators, commodities, inflation indicators
  • Chapter 8. The "cream of the crop" of economic cycle analysis: correctly predicting a recession - Recession indicators, market indicators, sentiment surveys, economic data
  • PART IV: It’s the People Who Matter – Sentiment and Psychology Play a Decisive Role
  • Chapter 9. Sentiment surveys – the NAHB index with a special focus on the subprime crisis - Special features, sentiment surveys, housing prices, starts and permits
  • Chapter 10. Psychology as a factor on the financial markets not to be underestimated Interdependencies, coping with information, prospect theory, psychological needs, parties
  • Chapter 11. Conclusion

About the authors



Bernd Krampen is economist and financial analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale, Germany, and holds a CEFA certificate of DVFA/EFFAS society of German/European financial analysts.